Bitcoin vs S&P 500: performance comparison
Over the 12 months to Oct 2, 2026, Bitcoin returned -31.7% and the S&P 500 +14.6%. This page puts the two side by side on the same dates — current prices, performance charts rebased to 100, returns from one month to five years, volatility, the deepest falls and how closely the two move together — recalculated daily from closing prices.
Performance, rebased to 100
Both lines start at 100 on the first shared date: a value of 150 means +50% since then.
- Bitcoin-31.7%
- S&P 500+14.6%
- Bitcoin+54.2%
- S&P 500+77.0%
Returns
| Period | Bitcoin | S&P 500 | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +10.4% | +0.7% | Bitcoin |
| 3 months | +38.5% | +3.2% | Bitcoin |
| 6 months | +27.6% | +17.3% | Bitcoin |
| Year to date | -3.0% | +12.8% | S&P 500 |
| 1 year | -31.7% | +14.6% | S&P 500 |
| 3 years | +206.0% | +80.4% | Bitcoin |
| 5 years | +54.2% | +77.0% | S&P 500 |
Price returns between closing prices on the same dates for both assets; dividends and interest are not included. All prices are in US dollars. Data to Oct 2, 2026.
Risk
| Measure | Bitcoin | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility, 1 year (annualized) | 42.1% | 13.1% |
| Volatility, 5 years (annualized, weekly) | 56.8% | 16.3% |
| Deepest fall, 5 years | -74.2%Nov 2021 – Dec 2022 | -24.8%Dec 2021 – Oct 2022 |
| Correlation, 1 year (daily returns) | 0.36 | |
| Correlation, 5 years (weekly returns) | 0.35 | |
Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of returns — higher means bigger swings. The deepest fall is the largest drop from a previous high. Correlation runs from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (in lockstep).
What the numbers say
Over five years (Oct 2021 to Oct 2026), Bitcoin returned +54.2% and the S&P 500 +77.0%. The S&P 500 came out ahead over both one and five years.
Annualized volatility over the past year: Bitcoin 42.1%, S&P 500 13.1% — Bitcoin was about 3.2× as volatile. Deepest fall over the period: Bitcoin -74.2% (Nov 2021 – Dec 2022), S&P 500 -24.8% (Dec 2021 – Oct 2022).
The correlation of their daily returns over the past year was 0.36. That is a weak positive link. Over five years of weekly returns it was 0.35.
Past performance does not predict future returns.
Key differences
- What you own: the S&P 500 represents shares in 500 large US companies that earn profits and pay dividends; Bitcoin has no earnings or cash flows, so its price rests entirely on supply and demand.
- Volatility: Bitcoin has historically been several times as volatile as the S&P 500 and has fallen more than 70% from a peak more than once.
- Trading hours: US stocks trade on weekdays during exchange hours; Bitcoin trades around the clock, including weekends and holidays.
- Risk appetite: since 2020 Bitcoin has often risen and fallen together with stocks, especially technology shares; the correlation figures above show how strong that link has been recently.
The two assets
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is the first and largest cryptocurrency, running since 2009, with supply capped at 21 million coins and new issuance halving roughly every four years. Its price is driven by investor demand and market liquidity — including flows into spot ETFs — and by regulation.
Bitcoin chart and analysis →S&P 500
The S&P 500 tracks 500 large US companies weighted by market value and is the most-watched benchmark for US stocks. Corporate earnings, interest rates and economic growth drive it; the index level used here excludes dividends.
S&P 500 chart and analysis →Frequently asked questions
Which performed better over the past year, Bitcoin or the S&P 500?
The S&P 500. In the 12 months to Oct 2, 2026, Bitcoin returned -31.7% and the S&P 500 +14.6%, a difference of 46.3 percentage points. Past performance does not predict future returns.
Which performed better over the past five years, Bitcoin or the S&P 500?
The S&P 500. From Oct 2021 to Oct 2026, Bitcoin returned +54.2% and the S&P 500 +77.0%. Past performance does not predict future returns.
Which is more volatile, Bitcoin or the S&P 500?
Bitcoin — about 3.2 times as volatile as the S&P 500. Annualized volatility over the past year: Bitcoin 42.1%, S&P 500 13.1%. Deepest fall over five years: Bitcoin -74.2%, S&P 500 -24.8%.
Do Bitcoin and the S&P 500 move together?
A weak positive link. The correlation of their daily returns over the past year was 0.36, on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) to +1 (moving in lockstep). Over five years of weekly returns it was 0.35.
How we calculate
Both series are aligned on the trading days (or weeks) they share, so every return covers the same dates for both assets. Periods up to one year use daily closes; three and five years use weekly closes. Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of log returns, the deepest fall is measured on weekly closes, and correlation is the Pearson coefficient of returns over identical intervals. Data: Yahoo Finance and OKX, refreshed daily. All prices are in US dollars.