US Dollar vs Gold in Turkish lira: performance comparison
Over the 12 months to Oct 5, 2026, the US dollar returned +17.9% and gold +24.2% (both in Turkish lira). This page puts the two side by side on the same dates — current prices, performance charts rebased to 100, returns from one month to five years, volatility, the deepest falls and how closely the two move together — recalculated daily from closing prices.
Performance, rebased to 100
Both lines start at 100 on the first shared date: a value of 150 means +50% since then.
- US Dollar+17.9%
- Gold+24.2%
- US Dollar+447.9%
- Gold+1,196.6%
Returns
| Period | US Dollar | Gold | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.5% | -5.0% | US Dollar |
| 3 months | +5.0% | +5.6% | Gold |
| 6 months | +10.3% | -1.4% | US Dollar |
| Year to date | +14.4% | +10.4% | US Dollar |
| 1 year | +17.9% | +24.2% | Gold |
| 3 years | +78.3% | +301.8% | Gold |
| 5 years | +447.9% | +1,196.6% | Gold |
Price returns between closing prices on the same dates for both assets; dividends and interest are not included. All figures are in Turkish lira: prices quoted in US dollars are converted at each day's USD/TRY close. Data to Oct 5, 2026.
Risk
| Measure | US Dollar | Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility, 1 year (annualized) | 1.6% | 29.2% |
| Volatility, 5 years (annualized, weekly) | 22.7% | 28.1% |
| Deepest fall, 5 years | -30.5%Dec 2021 – Dec 2021 | -30.2%Dec 2021 – Dec 2021 |
| Correlation, 1 year (daily returns) | 0.01 | |
| Correlation, 5 years (weekly returns) | 0.77 | |
Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of returns — higher means bigger swings. The deepest fall is the largest drop from a previous high. Correlation runs from −1 (opposite moves) through 0 (unrelated) to +1 (in lockstep).
What the numbers say
Over five years (Oct 2021 to Oct 2026), the US dollar returned +447.9% and gold +1,196.6%. Gold came out ahead over both one and five years.
Annualized volatility over the past year: US Dollar 1.6%, Gold 29.2% — gold was about 18.8× as volatile. Deepest fall over the period: US Dollar -30.5% (Dec 2021 – Dec 2021), Gold -30.2% (Dec 2021 – Dec 2021).
The correlation of their daily returns over the past year was 0.01. That is almost no relationship: they have moved largely independently. Over five years of weekly returns it was 0.77.
Past performance does not predict future returns.
Key differences
- Both are popular ways for savers in Türkiye to protect against lira inflation; here both are measured in lira.
- Gold in lira equals the dollar gold price × USD/TRY. So gold beats the dollar in lira terms exactly when the gold price rises in dollars — and lags it when gold falls.
- The dollar's return in lira comes only from the exchange rate (interest on dollar deposits is not included); gold adds the swings of the global gold price — more potential upside, and more volatility.
- In practice, physical gold carries dealer spreads and workmanship, and dollar cash or deposits carry bank spreads; neither is included here.
The two assets
US Dollar
USD/TRY is the price of one US dollar in Turkish lira — the currency many savers in Türkiye hold to protect against inflation. The lira's long-run decline reflects Türkiye's much higher inflation than the US; the central bank's interest-rate policy and reserves set the pace.
US Dollar chart and analysis →Gold
Gold is priced worldwide in US dollars per troy ounce (here: COMEX front-month futures). It pays no income, so its return comes only from price changes, which tend to respond to real interest rates, the US dollar, central-bank buying and demand for a safe haven in times of stress.
Gold chart and analysis →Frequently asked questions
In Turkish lira, which performed better over the past year: the US dollar or gold?
Gold. In the 12 months to Oct 5, 2026, the US dollar returned +17.9% and gold +24.2% (both in Turkish lira), a difference of 6.3 percentage points. Past performance does not predict future returns.
In Turkish lira, which performed better over five years: the US dollar or gold?
Gold. From Oct 2021 to Oct 2026, the US dollar returned +447.9% and gold +1,196.6% (both in Turkish lira). Past performance does not predict future returns.
Which is more volatile, the US dollar or gold?
Gold — about 18.8 times as volatile as the US dollar. Annualized volatility over the past year: US Dollar 1.6%, Gold 29.2%. Deepest fall over five years: US Dollar -30.5%, Gold -30.2%.
Do the US dollar and gold move together?
Almost no relationship: they have moved largely independently. The correlation of their daily returns over the past year was 0.01, on a scale from −1 (opposite moves) to +1 (moving in lockstep). Over five years of weekly returns it was 0.77.
How we calculate
Both series are aligned on the trading days (or weeks) they share, so every return covers the same dates for both assets. Periods up to one year use daily closes; three and five years use weekly closes. Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of log returns, the deepest fall is measured on weekly closes, and correlation is the Pearson coefficient of returns over identical intervals. Data: Yahoo Finance and OKX, refreshed daily. All figures are in Turkish lira: prices quoted in US dollars are converted at each day's USD/TRY close.